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AI capabilities

Figures active in this sub-topic

Figure	Avg. accuracy	Resolved
Sam Altman	—	0

Timeline

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2026

If we don't have models by 2030 that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised.
8/4/2026 · Sam Altman · unresolved
If by 2030 AI systems cannot perform tasks beyond human ability, I would be very surprised.
8/4/2026 · Sam Altman · unresolved

2023

AI systems will exceed human capabilities in many domains within the next decade
6/1/2023 · Sam Altman · unresolved

Difficulty

— average accuracy across all figures with resolved predictions in this topic — lower means this topic is harder to call correctly.

Top predictors

Rank	Figure	Accuracy	Resolved
1	Sam Altman	—	0

Prediction density

Jun 20231
Aug 20262